IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.9	#91
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.9	#145
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.1	#95

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.8	#93

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.0%	1.3%	0.2%
Top 6 Seed	2.3%	2.9%	0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	18.9%	22.2%	8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	14.6%	17.5%	6.0%
Average Seed	9.7	9.6	10.5

.500 or above	74.5%	80.6%	56.0%
.500 or above in Conference	65.7%	69.9%	52.9%
Conference Champion	4.1%	4.9%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	3.4%	2.7%	5.4%

First Four	3.6%	4.1%	2.1%
First Round	17.0%	20.1%	7.7%
Second Round	7.2%	8.6%	2.9%
Sweet Sixteen	2.4%	2.9%	0.7%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.1%	0.2%
Final Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Towson (Neutral) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 5
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 8
Quad 3	6 - 3	10 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 1	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	184	Towson	W	73-66	75%
Nov 26, 2020	136	Stephen F. Austin	W	78-74	65%
Nov 27, 2020	289	Army	W	80-67	89%
Nov 29, 2020	93	Rhode Island	W	76-75	51%
Dec 02, 2020	104	@ Nevada	L	76-78	45%
Dec 04, 2020	315	Cal Poly	W	82-63	95%
Dec 06, 2020	104	Nevada	W	79-75	65%
Dec 10, 2020	228	Long Beach St.	W	82-69	88%
Dec 13, 2020	107	@ California	L	69-70	45%
Dec 16, 2020	57	@ USC	L	70-77	28%
Dec 19, 2020	177	Grand Canyon	W	77-70	72%
Dec 22, 2020	298	Cal St. Fullerton	W	81-64	92%
Dec 31, 2020	159	San Diego	W	78-69	78%
Jan 02, 2021	1	@ Gonzaga	L	71-87	8%
Jan 07, 2021	108	Pepperdine	W	81-76	65%
Jan 09, 2021	154	@ Loyola Marymount	W	69-67	57%
Jan 14, 2021	263	@ Portland	W	77-68	77%
Jan 16, 2021	54	BYU	L	76-77	47%
Jan 21, 2021	125	@ Santa Clara	W	77-76	52%
Jan 23, 2021	74	St. Mary's	W	70-69	54%
Jan 30, 2021	54	@ BYU	L	73-80	28%
Feb 04, 2021	138	@ Pacific	W	69-68	55%
Feb 06, 2021	108	@ Pepperdine	L	78-79	45%
Feb 11, 2021	263	Portland	W	80-65	89%
Feb 13, 2021	1	Gonzaga	L	74-84	19%
Feb 18, 2021	154	Loyola Marymount	W	72-64	75%
Feb 25, 2021	74	@ St. Mary's	L	67-72	35%
Feb 27, 2021	125	Santa Clara	W	80-74	70%
Projected Record						17 - 11	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.6	1.3	1.4	0.7	0.1		4.1	1st
2nd										0.2	1.8	4.6	5.1	2.9	0.5				15.1	2nd
3rd									0.4	3.2	7.0	5.2	1.4	0.1					17.2	3rd
4th							0.0	0.4	3.5	7.1	4.1	0.6	0.0						15.8	4th
5th							0.4	3.3	6.9	3.4	0.4	0.0							14.4	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	2.9	5.7	2.8	0.2									11.8	6th
7th					0.3	2.5	4.5	2.0	0.2										9.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.3	1.6	3.0	1.5	0.2											6.5	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.2	1.8	0.6	0.1												4.1	9th
10th	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0													1.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.9	2.0	3.8	6.3	9.3	11.6	13.8	14.2	13.2	10.6	7.0	4.2	1.9	0.7	0.1			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	100.0%	0.7		0.6	0.1
14-2	73.0%	1.4		0.8	0.6	0.0
13-3	30.1%	1.3		0.5	0.7	0.1
12-4	8.1%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0
11-5	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	4.1%	4.1		2.1	1.7	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		100.0%	52.6%	47.4%	2.3		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0										100.0%
15-1	0.7%		96.2%	37.9%	58.3%	4.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		93.8%
14-2	1.9%		94.5%	24.5%	70.0%	6.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.1		92.8%
13-3	4.2%		85.5%	21.8%	63.7%	8.5			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0				0.6		81.4%
12-4	7.0%		59.4%	11.9%	47.5%	9.8					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0			2.9		53.9%
11-5	10.6%		37.9%	8.0%	29.8%	10.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.2	1.1	0.2	0.0			6.6		32.4%
10-6	13.2%		19.1%	5.4%	13.6%	11.3								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.0			10.7		14.4%
9-7	14.2%		8.4%	3.2%	5.2%	11.8									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		13.0		5.4%
8-8	13.8%		3.4%	1.2%	2.2%	12.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		13.3		2.2%
7-9	11.6%		1.6%	1.4%	0.2%	13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11.4		0.2%
6-10	9.3%		1.3%	1.3%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.2
5-11	6.3%		0.8%	0.8%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	6.2
4-12	3.8%		0.4%	0.4%		15.5																0.0	0.0	3.8
3-13	2.0%																							2.0
2-14	0.9%																							0.9
1-15	0.3%																							0.3
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		18.9%	5.1%	13.8%	9.7		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.8	1.0	1.5	2.4	3.0	3.8	3.6	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	81.1		14.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	1.3	65.4	34.6